The analyst PlanB is known for its scientifically based Bitcoin price models. In the past he has released two models with their own forecasts. On the one hand, the „normal“ stock-to-flow model (S2F) should be mentioned here, which tries to model the future Bitcoin Billionaire price with the help of the future stock-to-flow value. On the other hand, there is the stock-to-flow cross asset model (S2FX), in which PlanB tries to forecast the BTC price based on the stock-to-flow values and USD valuations of other asset classes.
While S2F is predicting a Bitcoin rate of USD 100,000 for the next few years, the S2FX model goes one step further and sees a rate of USD 288,000 by 2024. As if that were not a very bullish forecast from today’s perspective, PlanB emphasizes in a new interview that this is a „conservative“ forecast. He gives the possibility that the Bitcoin price could even climb to 864,000 USD in the same period.
Bitcoin course of 864,000 USD possible
According to crypto analyst PlanB, BTC could overshadow the prediction of its controversial stock-to-flow cross asset model (S2FX), rising to an incredible $ 864,000 USD in four years.
In an interview with crypto podcaster Peter McCormack, the quantitative analyst says he actually made a conservative bet when he predicted that BTC would hit $ 288,000.
I’m assuming an average of $ 288,000. $ 100,000 would be very nice too. But if you just follow the math, if you just follow the data, and I don’t mean the time series model. So we’re not just looking at Bitcoin. We look at gold, silver, diamonds, real estate and all that stuff. It’s about $ 288,000. That is an average.
As in the last phases, it could be about three times above the value. I don’t want to give the number. I try to be conservative all the time. But let’s say two or three times that $ 288,000, and then of course it crashes again.
From today’s perspective, the Bitcoin price models from PlanB are already very bullish with a BTC price of currently almost USD 10,000 and are therefore often criticized. With the new statements of the analyst, however, his forecasts are put in a new light insofar as they already assume a “conservative” average value.
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PlanB about the current status of BTC
In the new podcast, PlanB also talks about the news from a few weeks ago that the company MicroStrategy converted USD 250 million of its cash reserves into BTC. PlanB emphasizes the importance that a publicly traded company bought hundreds of millions of dollars in BTC as a hedge against inflation:
I’ve noticed that a lot of people don’t see the importance of what MicroStrategy is doing, but being a public company, it means that people can […] get bitcoin in their pension funds. You could just call your broker and not say, „Fine, get me some bitcoin in my pension fund“. But they can say, “Get me these and these and these and these companies. I would like to have these in my pension fund. That way, you could see MicroStrategy as an ETF.
Precisely because of the optimism that its Bitcoin price models and forecasts trigger in the crypto community, PlanB finally emphasizes once again that although it does not think that BTC will fail, its models are theories that do first have to prove to be true in reality.
The model can fail. It’s a model, after all. It’s a theory. It’s more about describing something and it’s quantitative so that it helps. But it’s a model. It can fail. Bitcoin is not going to fail. I do not believe that.
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